Global temperatures are rising at an unprecedented rate in human history. The last decade has been the warmest on record, with oceans absorbing record amounts of heat and extreme weather occurrences intensifying around the planet.
To understand why this is happening, we must consider two key types of climate drivers. This includes natural influences, which have shaped Earth’s temperature for millions of years, and human (anthropogenic) factors, which have accelerated warming since the Industrial Revolution. The distinction between them is critical to understanding both the problem and the solutions.
In this Article
What “Global Temperature Rise” Really Means
The term “global temperature rise” refers to the long-term increase in Earth’s average surface temperature, as measured across land, oceans, and atmosphere. Satellites, weather stations, ocean buoys, ice cores, and paleoclimate records are all used by scientists to track this temperature rise.
These records demonstrate that the Earth has warmed by around 1.1°C since the start of the Industrial Revolution in 1850. The underlying cause for this rise in temperature is the greenhouse effect, which is a natural phenomenon that maintains the Earth warm enough to support life. However, human activities have exacerbated this effect, storing far more heat than the globe can safely release.
Natural Causes of Temperature Change
Natural climate drivers can warm or cool the earth, although they usually function slowly or have short-term effects. Although, they are unable to explain the previous century’s dramatic and continuous warming. Some of the natural causes for temperature change include:
Volcanic Activity
Volcanic eruptions have two effects on the climate. Large volcanic eruptions emit sulphur dioxide, which creates reflective aerosols that briefly cool the planet by blocking sunlight.
The 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption lowered world temperatures by around 0.5°C for over two years.
On the other hand, volcanoes release CO₂, but their annual contribution is less than 1% of human emissions, which is insufficient to cause long-term warming.
Solar Variability
The Sun’s energy output varies in 11-year cycles. High solar activity can cause mild warming, whilst low activity can cause little cooling.
However, satellite data from the 1970s reveal no rising trend in solar output, and recent warming has occurred during periods of steady or declining solar activity.
This eliminates the Sun as the main cause of contemporary warming.
Natural Climate Cycles
Ocean-atmosphere cycles including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) shift heat distribution in the climate system.
El Niño years are generally warmer than La Niña years. These cycles cause short-term fluctuation, but they do not supply fresh heat to the system and cannot account for century-scale warming patterns.
Orbital Changes (Milankovitch Cycles)
The Earth’s orbit, tilt, and wobble change over tens of thousands of years, impacting ice ages and warm eras.
These cycles currently support slight cooling rather than warming, and they operate far too slowly to explain the fast temperature rise recorded since the twentieth century.
Human Causes of Temperature Rise
Human activities have greatly raised greenhouse gas concentrations, altered land surfaces, and influenced atmospheric chemistry. These adjustments correspond perfectly to the observed warming trend. Some of the primary human reasons of temperature rise are:
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Burning fossil fuels for electricity, transport, industry, and heating releases large amounts of CO₂.
Agriculture adds methane from livestock and nitrous oxide from fertilisers. NASA confirms that human-made emissions are trapping heat and slowing its loss to space, intensifying the greenhouse effect .
The European Commission reports that human-induced warming is increasing at 0.25°C per decade.
Deforestation & Land Use Change
Forests absorb CO₂ and regulate local climates. When forests are cleared for agriculture, logging, or urban expansion, stored carbon is released and the planet loses a major carbon sink.
Urbanisation also creates heat-trapping surfaces.
Land use change contributes 10–15% of global emissions, making it a significant driver of warming.
Industrial Processes & High-Impact Pollutants
Cement production releases CO₂ during chemical reactions.
Refrigerants such as HFCs have warming potentials thousands of times stronger than CO₂.
Black carbon (soot) absorbs sunlight and accelerates ice melt when deposited on snow and ice.
These pollutants amplify warming both directly and indirectly.
Transportation & Energy Systems
Cars, trucks, ships, and planes burn fossil fuels, making transportation responsible for nearly one-fifth of global energy-related CO₂ emissions.
Energy systems remain heavily dependent on coal, oil, and gas, making them the largest single contributor to global warming.
Natural VS Human Drivers: What The Evidence Show
The evidence of natural and human drivers show that temperature trends don’t match natural patterns. This is because if natural factors were responsible, we would expect gradual changes over thousands of years, cooling after major volcanic eruptions, and warming only during strong solar cycles. Instead, we see rapid, continuous warming that aligns with rising greenhouse gas concentrations.
In addition, when climate models include only natural factors, they show little to no rise in global temperatures. However, when human emissions are added, the models match observed temperature trends almost exactly. This is one of the strongest indicators that human activity is the dominant driver in this rise.
Moreover, CO₂ concentrations now exceed 420 ppm, methane and nitrous oxide are at record highs, and the rate of increase is accelerating. These levels correlate directly with industrialisation, fossil fuel use, and deforestation.
Impact and Future Outlook
Rising temperatures are driving extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, flooding etc. which has led to accelerating sea-level rise, melting glaciers and polar ice, altering ecosystems, increasing wildfire risk, and threatening food and water security. These impacts interact through feedback loops, amplifying each other.
Low-emissions pathways could stabilise warming later this century, reducing the risk of extreme impacts. High-emissions pathways could lead to 3–4°C of warming or more, triggering irreversible changes such as ice sheet collapse and widespread ecosystem loss. The choices made today will determine which future unfolds.
Conclusion
Natural factors have always shaped the Earth’s climate, but they cannot account for the rapid, unprecedented warming of the last century. The overwhelming evidence shows that human actions, particularly the use of fossil fuels and deforestation, are the principal causes of today’s global temperature rise. Understanding these reasons is critical to developing effective climate solutions and creating a more resilient future.
Planet Pulse 
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